Probabilities

Using these data, Abbe made what he called probabilities, or forecasts, and provided a daily weather chart. ❋ Nancy Mathis (2007)

In the end it comes down to probabilities, is a 20% chance of a fatal ailment reason enough to run $5000 in tests? ❋ Unknown (2010)

So to try to compensate for those problems, we added a very important feature to the statistical model that produces our win probabilities: It now incorporates the House race ratings produced by the Cook Political Report. ❋ The Huffington Post News Team (2010)

So is it possible that our final polling "trend estimates" and win probabilities are providing a misleading picture of the outcome? ❋ The Huffington Post News Team (2010)

That said, when trafficking in probabilities, you need to pick a spot where you are indifferent between the over/under, 14% seems “rule of thumb” reasonable to me from a probability distribution standpoint. ❋ Unknown (2010)

As of this weekend, we are using that model to generate win probabilities for the leading candidate in each race for which polling is available for Senate, Governor and U.S. House of Representatives. ❋ The Huffington Post News Team (2010)

As a result, relatively small leads on House District estimates -- sometimes as little as 4 to 6 percentage points -- would generate win probabilities at or near 100%, often in races that Cook still puts in the their toss-up category. ❋ The Huffington Post News Team (2010)

We found that leads of 7 or more percentage points usually translate into win probabilities of 98% or better, and leads of 8 or more almost always produce 100% certainty about the winner. ❋ The Huffington Post News Team (2010)

Instead, the "win probabilities" are really more accurately described as a cross between lead and win probabilities. ❋ The Huffington Post News Team (2010)

In recent posts I've explained the new statistical procedure that produces our trend lines and how we now generate "win probabilities" for the leading candidate in each race. ❋ The Huffington Post News Team (2010)

As much as I enjoy Asimov, the idea of psychohistory ever producing a workable model for predicting future probabilities is too ludicrous even for scifi. ❋ Unknown (2009)

An important point before explaining the mechanics: Our main goal in generating these probabilities is less about predicting the future -- although pre-election polls conducted in the last week of the campaign should provide a reasonably accurate forecast of the outcome -- and more about helping readers put our "trend estimates" into context. ❋ The Huffington Post News Team (2010)

This definition of intelligence as the causal factors responsible for changes in probabilities or, equivalently, for net increases in information is noncircular and, on reflection, should seem unproblematic. ❋ Unknown (2007)

In fact, the claim about probabilities is refuted by direct experimental measurement (not that a little thing like data is going to come between an antievolutionist and his/her creed). ❋ Unknown (2006)

Will you date a [co-worker]? [Probably not] but I may [give it a shot]. ❋ HoneyDewMelon30 (2016)

[She is] probably on [meth]. ❋ Urmimiisonmeth (2020)

Him: [my head hurts] Her: Why? Him: because i [hit it] on a wall Her: that's [probabli] ❋ AJacks43 (2018)

Hey [Dave], what's the probability of [rain] [tonight]? ❋ Yahooyas29 (2004)

[Dillon]: They will probably call off school today. [Tom]: Yeah, i sure [hope so]. ❋ Cookies R Us (2008)

A: People like [complaining]. B: Probably. [---] A: What time does [the football] game start? B: Probably. ❋ 5Q (2011)

A: What if a bomb [goes off]? (IDK I couldn't think of anything [bite me]) B: What's the actual probability of that happening? A: [Who gives a fuck] ❋ SlowXxXLearner (2009)

[Zac]: Damn [I'm good] at basketball. [Vincent]: Probably. ❋ Rob (2003)

A: Where the hell is Tom? B: He probably [ran down] [the train] track and died of [amnesia]. ❋ J Dogg (2003)

I will [probably not] [be back] to [my Mom's] until Sunday. ❋ Silenx (2017)